Forex Patterns and Probabilities

While most books on trading deal with general concepts and shy away from specifics, Forex Patterns and Probabilities provides you with real-world strategies and a rare sense of clarity about the specific mechanics of currency trading. Leading trading educator Ed Ponsi will explain the driving forces in the currency markets and will provide strategies to enter, exit, and manage successful trades. Dozens of chart examples and explanations will guide you each step of the way and allow the reader to "look over the shoulder" of a professional trader hard at work at his craft.

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This book provides traders with step-by-step methodologies that are based on real market tendencies. The strategies in this book are presented clearly and in detail, so that anyone who wishes to can learn how to trade like a professional. It is written in a style that is easy to understand, so that the reader can quickly learn and use the techniques provided.

From the Inside Flap

In recent years, traders have turned to the foreign exchange market expecting to capture substantial profits. While the high availability of leverage within this arena can improve your chances of making money, ultimately the success of your endeavors depends upon how well you understand and operate within this market. Nobody knows this better than author Ed Ponsi. As a professional trader and leading educator of traders, Ponsi has developed a proven approach to trading today's forex market, and now, with Forex Patterns and Probabilities, he wants to share it with you.

While most books on trading deal with general concepts and shy away from specifics, Forex Patterns and Probabilities provides you with real-world strategies and a rare sense of clarity about the specific mechanics of currency trading that will allow you to take advantage of both trending and range-bound markets.

Written in a straightforward and accessible style, Forex Patterns and Probabilities will help you make the most of your time in this market. You'll be introduced to a variety of elements that are essential to forex trading success and discover the best ways to enter, exit, and manage trades. Dozens of chart examples and explanations will guide you each step of the way and allow you to "look over the shoulder" of a professional trader hard at work at his craft.

Divided into four comprehensive parts, this detailed guide:

  • Explains the playing field of the forex market, using powerful metaphors that relate trading scenarios to situations in everyday life
  • Outlines several specific trading strategies—including the FX-Ed Trend Technique—designed for trending markets
  • Delves into a variety of non-trending trading techniques—from the volatility-based Squeeze Play to the hedge fund–inspired Interest Rate Edge—which are all based on unique market tendencies
  • Offers an insider's view on how to emulate the behavioral patterns of successful professional traders—and how to escape the mindset of the amateur
  • And much more

Today's forex market contains some of the most profitable trading opportunities in the world. With the practical strategies and trading methodologies found in Forex Patterns and Probabilities you can uncover these opportunities and achieve long-term financial success along the way.

Praise for FOREX PATTERNS & PROBABILITIES

"Ed has the experience, he has the knowledge, and he has the ability to wrap it all up into one of the most useful and insightful books on trading that I've read. You're going to be a better trader with the help of this book."
- Rob Booker, independent currency trader, and author of Adventures of a Currency Trader

"This book is a must-read for any equities trader who is trying to learn the ins and outs of the forex markets. Ed has the rare gift among traders and educators to take complex trading theories and break them down into interesting and easy-to-digest trading concepts. I have personally had the benefit of studying live with Ed, and I found this book a great review of my live courses with him and now use it as my main forex reference book in my trading library. Ed you truly are the rock star of the FX markets. Well done!"
- Michael J. Di Gioia, cofounder, the Results-Driven Financial Network

"Forex Patterns and Probabilities is one of the best practical forex trading books I have read, and I have read a good many forex books! Ed thoroughly teaches those areas that cause most difficulty for new traders, from economic fundamentals to technical trading to the psychological aspects that are so important but ignored by so many new to trading. Peppered throughout with anecdotes from the trading and non-trading world, Ed's easygoing, homespun style gets his message across very effectively. This work is destined to become essential reading for both new and established traders."
- George Hallmey, Director, Clickevents

"Ed Ponsi is a complete teacher! Forex Patterns and Probabilities covers it all for forex and trading in general. This book will teach you the foundations, the tactics, the pitfalls, and the 'real' world of forex. As Director of Education for the Online Trading Academy, I understand the importance of education and trading knowledge. . . Forex Patterns and Probabilities, while focused on forex, allows the reader to see the nuances of trading in general—fundamental, technical, psychological, plan management, and a strong, healthy dose of risk management and discipline."
- Mike McMahon, Director of Education, Online Trading Academy

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Comments

The book is intended for beginner traders or traders who are struggling with their strategies.

I cannot say if the concrete strategies are actually profitable or not, however the author has very good insight on the nature of some indicators and price action, and this information can be accommodated to whatever plans or strategies you have.

The information on account management and growth is great. His ideas on why trading from a larger scale and why this is the best way to go are the strongest I have read so far. Also, he does great at teaching the management of trades, SL and TP.

Finally, he is very funny and the best writer on Forex out of the books that I have read, which, by the way, is very rare. Forex writers tend to be unskilled.

Please do not expect to get rich out of reading this book. If that is your expectation, I recommend you buy a lottery ticket instead.

Ed Ponsi was my forex instructor for a summer 2015 class with Online Trading Academy. He was an enjoyable classroom teacher, and only on the last day of class did he modestly mention in passing that he had written a book on forex strategies.

It was not until a few months later, frustrated with stop losses in my demo account, that I bought his book and began to implement suggested strategies. What Ed didn't tell our class is that he is a master chartist who frequently appears on CNBC, Mad Money, and other investment shows.

His book has taught me how to use the ADX and EMAs to identify genuine trends; Fibonacci retracements to enter trending price moves and set targets/stops/exits (alone worth the price of the book); flags and pennants to set and enter trades; as well as many other strategies. He offers a nifty scalping strategy for the EURUSD (between close of the US market and open of the Asian market) that potentially can yield frequent profits, although lately that currency pair has been so range-bound that his suggested targets and stops need to be modified.

In short, his book has turned my trading around, resulting in daily profitability and at least 30% fewer stop losses. Several older reviews complain about his conservatism and the fact that many of these strategies may not be new. In my mind, using tested strategies in a responsible way is precisely the main selling point of the book for the beginning trader.

Successful trading is first about preventing losses and containing risk, and only second about making money. Profitability follows good risk management, and Ed understands this equation perfectly. His book can give any open-minded trader better understanding of risk and the technical tools and mindset to achieve profitability in forex trading.

I attended OTA's Pro Forex course back in Nov 2015. I have come close to trading full time twice. My highest monthly gains were north of 25% a month near the end of 2017. I learned that the pressure of success is worse than failure when you are an undisciplined trader trying to recreate fraudulent gains achieved using reckless risk management!

Fast forward to January 2021 I still have a hard time remaining disciplined at times in this market. The losses can be brutal, but when you take a $1000 profit it is better than anything you could ever imagine...

I promised myself that this is the year that I truly become a Pro Trader, and stop being a Pro Gambler... When you are a good enough trader to spot opportunities in the market to offset your reckless behavior you are at a crossroad...

This is why I finally purchased Ed Ponsi's book. I want to fix the broken pieces that are hiding in my trading methodology as well as add new tools to my trading tool box. This book has taken care of both of my goals...

The information is great and I encourage all traders to take advantage. When you add the author's process to a solid foundation, the changes will be immediately noticeable. Mr. Ponsi's trend filters are worth the price of the book and can help you combat revenge trades and tunnel vision when going through your trading plan.

A very good from-scratch discussion of the market and trading mechanics, nice overview of the fundemental reports, some actionable strategies laid out and well explained and a few genuine veteran insights thrown in to boot. Worth owning, especially if you're beginner to intermediate.

However, he's just too conservative. His setups are very good but you'll grow old waiting to see them. Example: calling for 4 (5, 20, 50, and 200 if I remember right) moving averages to fan out in proper order, on a daily chart, in order to qualify a trend. Yeah, it's definitely a trend, but by the time you get there, the trend's almost over. And you'll never get in on a retracement or a resumption that way. You'll control losses by never placing any trades. Nix at least one moving average, maybe even 2.

His focus is daily charts in general. Nothing wrong with that, but nowhere's near the money to made or lost as in the intraday charts. But he doesn't tell you that. He offers a flawed argument why his way is best, goes something like this: Using one of his ideal trendfollowing setups, he pulls of a trade that earns him something like 3000 in 4 months. Then he goes on to compare it to a 10 pip per trade goal and says even if you made your 10 pips per day, everyday, in that same period, with the same pair, you'd only score about 1700 pips instead of his 3000. Fair logic, but who says you'd only get 10 pips and quit? His 3000 pip rise is punctuated with enough ups and downs to score twice or 3 times that trading intraday. With less risk, given that his stops on a daily were as high as 155 pips, still pretty tight for a daily chart, yet that same 155 pips is an enormous stop on an hourly. Not to mention all the days that you won't be trading while you wait for 4 MA's to line up.

I'm not bashing the guy - he wrote a good book, better than alot of them out there, but know that his way is safe at the expense of returns. The one advantage is that his trades are not labor intensive, you can visit your broker site once a day to manage them. But only once. Not for active traders unless you adapt them somehow.

On the other hand, if you have a job and a family and a house to take care of and are happy just to beat the return on a T-bill then Ponsi's your man. You just can't make a living with his methods.


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